Friday, July 28, 2006

Yes, Harper will win a Majority

There's an interesting discussion at The Globe and Mail about John Ibbitson's column, "Tory Majority Ain't Happenin'" You have to pay to read the column. But essentially the argument is the tories need to win seats in Vancouver, Toronto, and the province of Quebec and their stands on key issues are sure to alienate these voters. The issues listed in the article are the Kyoto Protocol, the Afghanistan deployment, scrapping the gun registry, mild opposition to same sex "marriage," and support for Israel. None of these issues will be damaging to Harper's chances.

Kyoto was supported by environmentalists, and the admission that Canada will not meet its targets was viewed as a threat. However, this fall the Conservatives will put forward a 'Green Plan' that will demonstrate that the government is not going to abandon the environment.

The deployment to Afghanistan may be unpopular in Quebec, but the Liberals started this mission. The federalist vote in Quebec will go to the perceived front runner like it always does.

Scrapping the long gun registry will have very little impact on safety in cities. Meanwhile, the tougher enforcement and sentencing option put forward by the Conservatives may be effective.

Same sex "marriage." Whatever. I know very few heterosexuals that are passionate about entrenching this issue. Really, there are two groups: those who passionately believe that marriage should be between a man and a woman; and a larger group that really just doesn't care. Those who would vote against the government on this issue alone are part of a fringe that would never vote Conservative anyway.

Support for Israel. I don't know how this will play out, but John's own Editorial Board said this about Stephen Harper's position on the conflict: "To take a neutral stand between terrorist militias fuelled by radical Islam and a democratic country defending itself from attack would have been a perversion of our traditions. Mr Harper did the right thing when he backed Israel's right to defend itself, even if its counterattack has sometimes been too fierce and too sweeping."

Add to that the undisputed effectiveness of his government despite being in a minority position, and I'm confident Harper will be leading a majority government whenever the next election comes.

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